Race2026 cycle · Special electionsElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

Cite this page

DonorAlpha, “Arkansas Senate general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/arkansas-senate-general-2026?e=c2026&el=special, updated .

Arkansas Senate general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Tom Cotton 94.0% · prediction market price

No. 34 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 Arkansas Senate general election, 2 outside groups spent $3.3M: $3.3M opposing Hallie Shoffner (D).

$3.3M

outside money

opposing Hallie Shoffner (D)
$3.3M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Hallie Shoffner

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →
  • Hallie Shoffner Democrat

    $3.3M

    $3.3M opposing Hallie Shoffner

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them.

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 5 Oct 2026

Opposing $211K

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. America Oneopposing Hallie Shoffner$3.2M
  2. Arkansans for Democracy and Justiceopposing Hallie Shoffner$104K

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesAmerica One spent $3.2M opposing Hallie Shoffner · $3.2MArkansans for Democracy and Justice spent $104K opposing Hallie Shoffner · $104KAmerica One Policies gave $850K to America One · $850KAltria Client Services (VA) gave $300K to America One · $300KAmerica One PoliciesAmerica One PoliciesCompany or group · $850KAltria Client Services (VA)Altria Client Services (VA)Company or group · $300KAmerica OneAmerica OneGroup · $3.2MArkansans for Democracy andJusticeArkansans for Democracy and JusticeGroup · $104KHallie ShoffnerHallie ShoffnerCandidate · $3.3M
  • America One spent opposing Hallie Shoffner · $3.2M
  • Arkansans for Democracy and Justice spent opposing Hallie Shoffner · $104K
  • America One Policies gave to America One · $850K
  • Altria Client Services (VA) gave to America One · $300K
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

America One

  • America One spent $3.2M opposing Hallie Shoffner$3.2M
  • America One Policies gave $850K to America One$850K
  • Altria Client Services (VA) gave $300K to America One$300K

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The latest poll, by J.L. Partners to 18 Aug 2026, has Tom Cotton at 51.0% and Hallie Shoffner at 35.0%.

2polls of this race

in 2026
2
pollsters
2

Hallie ShoffnerTom Cotton

J.L. Partners14 Aug to 18 Aug 2026 · 803 likely voters
DemocraticHallie Shoffner35.0%
RepublicanTom Cotton51.0%

Also asked · Jeff Wadlin 4.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 18 Aug ’26J.L. Partners 14 Aug to 18 Aug 2026 · 803 likely votersHallie Shoffner 35.0%Tom Cotton 51.0%Jeff Wadlin 4.0%
  2. 9 Feb ’26GrayHouse a party-aligned sponsor paid for it7 Feb to 9 Feb 2026 · 550 likely votersHallie Shoffner 36.0%Tom Cotton 58.0%
For reporters, researchers and the professionally curious

Go deeper

The paperwork behind this race, all of it. Free with an email sign-in.

The paperwork

Sign in free with your email

It’s free. We only want your email address. We’ll never ask you to chip in $5.