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Race2026 cycle · Special electionsElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Iowa Senate general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/iowa-senate-general-2026?e=c2026&el=special, updated .

Iowa Senate general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Ashley Hinson 54.5% · prediction market price

No. 4 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 Iowa Senate general election, 33 outside groups spent $76.1M: $2.7M supporting Josh Turek (D), $36.6M opposing Josh Turek, $10.9M supporting Ashley Hinson (R) and $25.8M opposing Ashley Hinson.

$76.1M

outside money

supporting Josh Turek (D)
$2.7M
opposing Josh Turek (D)
$36.6M
supporting Ashley Hinson (R)
$10.9M
opposing Ashley Hinson (R)
$25.8M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Josh Turek

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Ashley Hinson

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Josh Turek Democrat

    $36.6M
    $2.7M

    $2.7M supporting Josh Turek · $36.6M opposing Josh Turek

  • Ashley Hinson Republican

    $25.8M
    $10.9M

    $10.9M supporting Ashley Hinson · $25.8M opposing Ashley Hinson

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them, and what party committees spent working with the campaign.

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 5 Oct 2026

Supporting $1.3MOpposing $456K

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.supporting Ashley Hinson$5.8M
  2. Fight on Iowasupporting Ashley Hinson$4.4M
  3. One for All Committeesupporting Josh Turek$1.3M
  4. Lower Costs Nowsupporting Josh Turek$621K
  5. CFFE PACsupporting Josh Turek$336K
  6. High Plains PACsupporting Ashley Hinson$258K
  7. Senate Leadership Fundsupporting Ashley Hinson$190K
  8. Government That Works PACsupporting Josh Turek$155K

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Senate Leadership Fundopposing Josh Turek$23.3M
  2. WinSenateopposing Ashley Hinson$15.0M
  3. Win It Back PACopposing Josh Turek$3.8M
  4. Fight on Iowaopposing Josh Turek$3.5M
  5. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.opposing Josh Turek$3.1M
  6. VOTEVETSopposing Ashley Hinson$2.8M
  7. AB PACopposing Ashley Hinson$2.6M
  8. American Meat Producers PACopposing Ashley Hinson$1.7M

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesSenate Leadership Fund spent $23.3M opposing Josh Turek · $23.3MWinSenate spent $15.0M opposing Ashley Hinson · $15.0MAmericans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent $5.8M supporting Ashley Hinson · $5.8MFight on Iowa spent $4.4M supporting Ashley Hinson · $4.4MWin It Back PAC spent $3.8M opposing Josh Turek · $3.8MFight on Iowa spent $3.5M opposing Josh Turek · $3.5MAmericans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent $3.1M opposing Josh Turek · $3.1MVOTEVETS spent $2.8M opposing Ashley Hinson · $2.8MAB PAC spent $2.6M opposing Ashley Hinson · $2.6MAmerican Meat Producers PAC spent $1.7M opposing Ashley Hinson · $1.7MSenate Leadership Fund spent $190K supporting Ashley Hinson · $190KWinSenate spent $50,000 supporting Josh Turek · $50,000One Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7MChevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9MSMP gave $21.1M to WinSenate · $21.1MKoch Inc gave $30.0M to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $30.0MStand Together gave $20.0M to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $20.0MA Public Voice (OH) gave $115K to Fight on Iowa · $115KSorrento West Properties gave $25,000 to Fight on Iowa · $25,000Rai Services (NC) gave $50,000 to Win It Back PAC · $50,000United Wholesale Mortgage gave $30,000 to Win It Back PAC · $30,000VOTEVETS Action Fund (DC) gave $1.0M to VOTEVETS · $1.0MCompass Partners Capital gave $50,000 to VOTEVETS · $50,000AB Foundation gave $13.0M to AB PAC · $13.0MDemocracy Matters gave $5.6M to AB PAC · $5.6MAmerican Meat Producers Association (MD) gave $1,088 to American Meat Producers PAC · $1,088One NationOne NationCompany or group · $70.7MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.9MSMPSMPCompany or group · $21.1MKoch IncKoch IncCompany or group · $30.0MStand TogetherStand TogetherCompany or group · $20.0MA Public Voice (OH)A Public Voice (OH)Company or group · $115KSorrento West PropertiesSorrento West PropertiesCompany or group · $25,000Rai Services (NC)Rai Services (NC)Company or group · $50,000United Wholesale MortgageUnited Wholesale MortgageCompany or group · $30,000VOTEVETS Action Fund (DC)VOTEVETS Action Fund (DC)Company or group · $1.0MCompass Partners CapitalCompass Partners CapitalCompany or group · $50,000AB FoundationAB FoundationCompany or group · $13.0MDemocracy MattersDemocracy MattersCompany or group · $5.6MAmerican Meat ProducersAssociation (MD)American Meat Producers Association (MD)Company or group · $1,088Senate Leadership FundSenate Leadership FundGroup · $23.4MWinSenateWinSenateGroup · $15.1MAmericans for ProsperityAction, Inc.Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.Group · $8.9MFight on IowaFight on IowaGroup · $7.9MWin It Back PACWin It Back PACGroup · $3.8MVOTEVETSVOTEVETSGroup · $2.8MAB PACAB PACGroup · $2.6MAmerican Meat Producers PACAmerican Meat Producers PACGroup · $1.7MJosh TurekJosh TurekCandidate · $39.3MAshley HinsonAshley HinsonCandidate · $36.6MZach WahlsZach WahlsCandidate · $150K
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent opposing Josh Turek · $23.3M
  • WinSenate spent opposing Ashley Hinson · $15.0M
  • Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent supporting Ashley Hinson · $5.8M
  • Fight on Iowa spent supporting Ashley Hinson · $4.4M
  • Win It Back PAC spent opposing Josh Turek · $3.8M
  • Fight on Iowa spent opposing Josh Turek · $3.5M
  • Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent opposing Josh Turek · $3.1M
  • VOTEVETS spent opposing Ashley Hinson · $2.8M
  • AB PAC spent opposing Ashley Hinson · $2.6M
  • American Meat Producers PAC spent opposing Ashley Hinson · $1.7M
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent supporting Ashley Hinson · $190K
  • WinSenate spent supporting Josh Turek · $50,000
  • One Nation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9M
  • SMP gave to WinSenate · $21.1M
  • Koch Inc gave to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $30.0M
  • Stand Together gave to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $20.0M
  • A Public Voice (OH) gave to Fight on Iowa · $115K
  • Sorrento West Properties gave to Fight on Iowa · $25,000
  • Rai Services (NC) gave to Win It Back PAC · $50,000
  • United Wholesale Mortgage gave to Win It Back PAC · $30,000
  • VOTEVETS Action Fund (DC) gave to VOTEVETS · $1.0M
  • Compass Partners Capital gave to VOTEVETS · $50,000
  • AB Foundation gave to AB PAC · $13.0M
  • Democracy Matters gave to AB PAC · $5.6M
  • American Meat Producers Association (MD) gave to American Meat Producers PAC · $1,088
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Senate Leadership Fund

  • Senate Leadership Fund spent $23.3M opposing Josh Turek$23.3M
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent $190K supporting Ashley Hinson$190K
  • One Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund$70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund$3.9M

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 5 polls to 28 Sep 2026 has Josh Turek at 46.6% and Ashley Hinson at 45.6%.

5polls in the average

polls of this race
18
pollsters
12

Josh TurekAshley Hinson

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research24 Sep to 28 Sep 2026 · 1,008 likely voters
DemocraticJosh Turek49.0%
RepublicanAshley Hinson47.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 28 Sep ’26Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 24 Sep to 28 Sep 2026 · 1,008 likely votersJosh Turek 49.0%Ashley Hinson 47.0%
  2. 20 Sep ’26Marist University 17 Sep to 20 Sep 2026 · 1,050 registered votersJosh Turek 50.0%Ashley Hinson 42.0%
  3. 16 Sep ’26co/efficient a party-aligned sponsor paid for it14 Sep to 16 Sep 2026 · 831 likely votersJosh Turek 42.0%Ashley Hinson 46.0%Thomas Laehn 2.0%
  4. 8 Sep ’26YouGov 3 Sep to 8 Sep 2026 · 2,166 registered votersJosh Turek 44.0%Ashley Hinson 43.0%
  5. 8 Sep ’26YouGov 3 Sep to 8 Sep 2026 · 2,041 likely votersJosh Turek 47.0%Ashley Hinson 43.0%
  6. 1 Sep ’26Emerson College 31 Aug to 1 Sep 2026 · 750 likely votersJosh Turek 45.0%Ashley Hinson 50.0%
  7. 23 Aug ’26Suffolk University 20 Aug to 23 Aug 2026 · 500 likely votersJosh Turek 40.8%Ashley Hinson 45.4%
  8. 4 Aug ’26Emerson College 2 Aug to 4 Aug 2026 · 712 likely votersJosh Turek 45.0%Ashley Hinson 48.0%
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