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Race2026 cycle · PrimariesElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Kansas Senate general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/kansas-senate-general-2026?e=c2026&el=primary, updated .

Kansas Senate general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Roger Marshall 63.5% · prediction market price

No. 25 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 Kansas Senate general election, 9 outside groups spent $7.9M: $43,786 supporting Roger Marshall (R), $4.8M opposing Roger Marshall, $512K supporting Adam Hamilton (D) and $2.5M opposing Adam Hamilton.

$7.9M

outside money

supporting Roger Marshall (R)
$43,786
opposing Roger Marshall (R)
$4.8M
supporting Adam Hamilton (D)
$512K
opposing Adam Hamilton (D)
$2.5M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Roger Marshall

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

  • Adam Hamilton

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Roger Marshall Republican

    $4.8M
    $43,786

    $43,786 supporting Roger Marshall · $4.8M opposing Roger Marshall

  • Adam Hamilton Democrat

    $2.5M
    $512K

    $512K supporting Adam Hamilton · $2.5M opposing Adam Hamilton

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them.

  • Roger Marshall

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $4.0M
    Outside money supporting
    $43,786
    Outside money opposing
    $4.8M
    Kansans for Marshall

  • Adam Hamilton

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $4.2M
    Outside money supporting
    $512K
    Outside money opposing
    $2.5M
    Hamilton for Kansas
  • Campaign money to 15 Jul 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 28 Sep 2026

Supporting $287KOpposing $2.6M

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. United Futures PACsupporting Adam Hamilton$509K
  2. Senate Conservatives Fundsupporting Roger Marshall$32,568
  3. Senate Conservatives Actionsupporting Roger Marshall$11,218
  4. Lower Costs Nowsupporting Adam Hamilton$3,035

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. People Over Politics Action Fundopposing Roger Marshall$3.4M
  2. Main Street Fundopposing Adam Hamilton$2.0M
  3. Lower Costs Nowopposing Roger Marshall$696K
  4. The 1861 Initiativeopposing Roger Marshall$600K
  5. Senate Leadership Fundopposing Adam Hamilton$546K
  6. United Futures PACopposing Roger Marshall$32,703
  7. United Futuresopposing Roger Marshall$25,000

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesPeople Over Politics Action Fund spent $3.4M opposing Roger Marshall · $3.4MMain Street Fund spent $2.0M opposing Adam Hamilton · $2.0MLower Costs Now spent $696K opposing Roger Marshall · $696KThe 1861 Initiative spent $600K opposing Roger Marshall · $600KSenate Leadership Fund spent $546K opposing Adam Hamilton · $546KUnited Futures PAC spent $509K supporting Adam Hamilton · $509KUnited Futures PAC spent $32,703 opposing Roger Marshall · $32,703Senate Conservatives Fund spent $32,568 supporting Roger Marshall · $32,568United Futures spent $25,000 opposing Roger Marshall · $25,000Lower Costs Now spent $3,035 supporting Adam Hamilton · $3,035Western Futures Fund gave $2.0M to The 1861 Initiative · $2.0MGlobal Impact Social Welfare Fund (DC) gave $300K to The 1861 Initiative · $300KOne Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7MChevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9MBlessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action Committee gave $5,000 to Senate Conservatives Fund · $5,000Western Futures FundWestern Futures FundCompany or group · $2.0MGlobal Impact Social WelfareFund (DC)Global Impact Social Welfare Fund (DC)Company or group · $300KOne NationOne NationCompany or group · $70.7MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.9MBlessey Marine Service, Inc.Political Action CommitteeBlessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action CommitteeCompany or group · $5,000People Over Politics ActionFundPeople Over Politics Action FundGroup · $3.4MMain Street FundMain Street FundGroup · $2.0MLower Costs NowLower Costs NowGroup · $699KThe 1861 InitiativeThe 1861 InitiativeGroup · $600KSenate Leadership FundSenate Leadership FundGroup · $546KUnited Futures PACUnited Futures PACGroup · $542KSenate Conservatives FundSenate Conservatives FundGroup · $32,568United FuturesUnited FuturesGroup · $25,000Roger MarshallRoger MarshallCandidate · $4.8MAdam HamiltonAdam HamiltonCandidate · $3.1M
  • People Over Politics Action Fund spent opposing Roger Marshall · $3.4M
  • Main Street Fund spent opposing Adam Hamilton · $2.0M
  • Lower Costs Now spent opposing Roger Marshall · $696K
  • The 1861 Initiative spent opposing Roger Marshall · $600K
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent opposing Adam Hamilton · $546K
  • United Futures PAC spent supporting Adam Hamilton · $509K
  • United Futures PAC spent opposing Roger Marshall · $32,703
  • Senate Conservatives Fund spent supporting Roger Marshall · $32,568
  • United Futures spent opposing Roger Marshall · $25,000
  • Lower Costs Now spent supporting Adam Hamilton · $3,035
  • Western Futures Fund gave to The 1861 Initiative · $2.0M
  • Global Impact Social Welfare Fund (DC) gave to The 1861 Initiative · $300K
  • One Nation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9M
  • Blessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action Committee gave to Senate Conservatives Fund · $5,000
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.
  • People Over Politics Action Fund spent $3.4M opposing Roger Marshall$3.4M

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 2 polls to 24 Sep 2026 has Adam Hamilton at 47.5% and Roger Marshall at 45.5%.

2polls in the average

polls of this race
3
pollsters
3

Adam HamiltonRoger Marshall

Wedgewood Polls22 Sep to 24 Sep 2026 · 500 likely voters
DemocraticAdam Hamilton50.0%
RepublicanRoger Marshall48.0%

Also asked · David Graham 2.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 24 Sep ’26Wedgewood Polls 22 Sep to 24 Sep 2026 · 500 likely votersAdam Hamilton 50.0%Roger Marshall 48.0%David Graham 2.0%
  2. 16 Sep ’26Emerson College 15 Sep to 16 Sep 2026 · 750 likely votersAdam Hamilton 45.0%Roger Marshall 43.0%David Graham 4.0%
  3. 28 Jan ’26Tavern Research 26 Jan to 28 Jan 2026 · 1,013 likely votersAdam Hamilton 46.0%Roger Marshall 54.0%
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