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Race2026 cycle · Special electionsElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Michigan Senate general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/michigan-senate-general-2026?e=c2026&el=special, updated .

Michigan Senate general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Abdul El-Sayed 70.5% · prediction market price

No. 3 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 Michigan Senate general election, 51 outside groups spent $103.6M: $6.1M supporting Abdul El-Sayed (D), $57.0M opposing Abdul El-Sayed, $16.4M supporting Mike Rogers (R) and $24.1M opposing Mike Rogers.

$103.6M

outside money

supporting Abdul El-Sayed (D)
$6.1M
opposing Abdul El-Sayed (D)
$57.0M
supporting Mike Rogers (R)
$16.4M
opposing Mike Rogers (R)
$24.1M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Abdul El-Sayed

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Mike Rogers

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Abdul El-Sayed Democrat

    $57.0M
    $6.1M

    $6.1M supporting Abdul El-Sayed · $57.0M opposing Abdul El-Sayed

  • Mike Rogers Republican

    $24.1M
    $16.4M

    $16.4M supporting Mike Rogers · $24.1M opposing Mike Rogers

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them, and what party committees spent working with the campaign.

  • Abdul El-Sayed

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $14.5M
    Outside money supporting
    $6.1M
    Outside money opposing
    $57.0M

    Party spending with the campaign

    $329K

    DSCC $329K

    Abdul for U.S. Senate

  • Mike Rogers

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $10.8M
    Outside money supporting
    $16.4M
    Outside money opposing
    $24.1M

    Party spending with the campaign

    $4.4M

    NRSC $4.4M

    Rogers for Senate
  • Campaign money to 15 Jul 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 5 Oct 2026

Supporting $434KOpposing $432K

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.supporting Mike Rogers$6.6M
  2. GLCF, Inc.supporting Mike Rogers$5.8M
  3. WinSenatesupporting Abdul El-Sayed$2.7M
  4. America PACsupporting Mike Rogers$1.7M
  5. No Going Back PACsupporting Mike Rogers$930K
  6. The Sentinel Action Fundsupporting Mike Rogers$764K
  7. Unity & Justice Fundsupporting Abdul El-Sayed$401K
  8. LCV Victory Fundsupporting Abdul El-Sayed$401K

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Senate Leadership Fundopposing Abdul El-Sayed$27.4M
  2. No Going Back PACopposing Abdul El-Sayed$16.6M
  3. WinSenateopposing Mike Rogers$12.6M
  4. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.opposing Abdul El-Sayed$5.1M
  5. Defend the Voteopposing Mike Rogers$4.6M
  6. America PACopposing Abdul El-Sayed$2.7M
  7. The Sentinel Action Fundopposing Abdul El-Sayed$2.3M
  8. Planned Parenthood Votesopposing Mike Rogers$1.6M

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesSenate Leadership Fund spent $27.4M opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $27.4MNo Going Back PAC spent $16.6M opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $16.6MWinSenate spent $12.6M opposing Mike Rogers · $12.6MAmericans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent $6.6M supporting Mike Rogers · $6.6MGLCF, Inc. spent $5.8M supporting Mike Rogers · $5.8MAmericans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent $5.1M opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $5.1MDefend the Vote spent $4.6M opposing Mike Rogers · $4.6MAmerica PAC spent $2.7M opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $2.7MWinSenate spent $2.7M supporting Abdul El-Sayed · $2.7MThe Sentinel Action Fund spent $2.3M opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $2.3MAmerica PAC spent $1.7M supporting Mike Rogers · $1.7MGLCF, Inc. spent $1.4M opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $1.4MNo Going Back PAC spent $930K supporting Mike Rogers · $930KThe Sentinel Action Fund spent $764K supporting Mike Rogers · $764KOne Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7MChevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9MSMP gave $21.1M to WinSenate · $21.1MKoch Inc gave $30.0M to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $30.0MStand Together gave $20.0M to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $20.0MTeam Rogers gave $332K to GLCF, Inc. · $332KPenske Corporation gave $250K to GLCF, Inc. · $250KDefend the Vote Action Fund gave $801K to Defend the Vote · $801KDemocratic Movement gave $143K to Defend the Vote · $143KLexington Fund (VA) gave $1.5M to The Sentinel Action Fund · $1.5MTownsend Six gave $1.3M to The Sentinel Action Fund · $1.3MOne NationOne NationCompany or group · $70.7MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.9MSMPSMPCompany or group · $21.1MKoch IncKoch IncCompany or group · $30.0MStand TogetherStand TogetherCompany or group · $20.0MTeam RogersTeam RogersCompany or group · $332KPenske CorporationPenske CorporationCompany or group · $250KDefend the Vote Action FundDefend the Vote Action FundCompany or group · $801KDemocratic MovementDemocratic MovementCompany or group · $143KLexington Fund (VA)Lexington Fund (VA)Company or group · $1.5MTownsend SixTownsend SixCompany or group · $1.3MSenate Leadership FundSenate Leadership FundGroup · $27.4MNo Going Back PACNo Going Back PACGroup · $17.5MWinSenateWinSenateGroup · $15.3MAmericans for ProsperityAction, Inc.Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.Group · $11.7MGLCF, Inc.GLCF, Inc.Group · $7.2MDefend the VoteDefend the VoteGroup · $4.6MAmerica PACAmerica PACGroup · $4.5MThe Sentinel Action FundThe Sentinel Action FundGroup · $3.1MAbdul El-SayedAbdul El-SayedCandidate · $63.1MMike RogersMike RogersCandidate · $40.5M
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $27.4M
  • No Going Back PAC spent opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $16.6M
  • WinSenate spent opposing Mike Rogers · $12.6M
  • Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent supporting Mike Rogers · $6.6M
  • GLCF, Inc. spent supporting Mike Rogers · $5.8M
  • Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $5.1M
  • Defend the Vote spent opposing Mike Rogers · $4.6M
  • America PAC spent opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $2.7M
  • WinSenate spent supporting Abdul El-Sayed · $2.7M
  • The Sentinel Action Fund spent opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $2.3M
  • America PAC spent supporting Mike Rogers · $1.7M
  • GLCF, Inc. spent opposing Abdul El-Sayed · $1.4M
  • No Going Back PAC spent supporting Mike Rogers · $930K
  • The Sentinel Action Fund spent supporting Mike Rogers · $764K
  • One Nation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9M
  • SMP gave to WinSenate · $21.1M
  • Koch Inc gave to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $30.0M
  • Stand Together gave to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $20.0M
  • Team Rogers gave to GLCF, Inc. · $332K
  • Penske Corporation gave to GLCF, Inc. · $250K
  • Defend the Vote Action Fund gave to Defend the Vote · $801K
  • Democratic Movement gave to Defend the Vote · $143K
  • Lexington Fund (VA) gave to The Sentinel Action Fund · $1.5M
  • Townsend Six gave to The Sentinel Action Fund · $1.3M
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Senate Leadership Fund

  • Senate Leadership Fund spent $27.4M opposing Abdul El-Sayed$27.4M
  • One Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund$70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund$3.9M

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 9 polls to 1 Oct 2026 has Abdul El-Sayed at 47.8% and Mike Rogers at 44.4%.

9polls in the average

polls of this race
65
pollsters
23

Abdul El-SayedMike Rogers

Mitchell Research & Communications1 Oct 2026 · 682 likely voters
DemocraticAbdul El-Sayed46.0%
RepublicanMike Rogers41.0%

Also asked · Lydia Christensen 3.0% · Walter P. Kristy 2.0% · Douglas P. Marsh 1.0% · Tim Long 1.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 1 Oct ’26Mitchell Research & Communications 1 Oct 2026 · 682 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 46.0%Mike Rogers 41.0%Lydia Christensen 3.0%Walter P. Kristy 2.0%Douglas P. Marsh 1.0%Tim Long 1.0%
  2. 30 Sep ’26Trafalgar Group a party-aligned sponsor paid for it28 Sep to 30 Sep 2026 · 1,085 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 47.0%Mike Rogers 45.0%Lydia Christensen 2.0%Tim Long 1.0%
  3. 28 Sep ’26Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 24 Sep to 28 Sep 2026 · 1,028 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 50.0%Mike Rogers 49.0%
  4. 23 Sep ’26co/efficient 21 Sep to 23 Sep 2026 · 843 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 50.0%Mike Rogers 50.0%
  5. 22 Sep ’26The New York Times/Siena University 15 Sep to 22 Sep 2026 · 605 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 49.0%Mike Rogers 44.0%
  6. 21 Sep ’26Cygnal/Beacon Research 18 Sep to 21 Sep 2026 · 600 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 45.0%Mike Rogers 40.0%Lydia Christensen 1.0%
  7. 20 Sep ’26Suffolk University 16 Sep to 20 Sep 2026 · 500 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 47.0%Mike Rogers 40.0%Lydia Christensen 1.0%Walter P. Kristy 1.0%
  8. 14 Sep ’26Emerson College 12 Sep to 14 Sep 2026 · 1,000 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 48.2%Mike Rogers 45.7%Douglas P. Marsh 3.0%Tim Long 0.6%Lydia Christensen 0.5%Walter P. Kristy 0.3%
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