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Race2026 cycle · RunoffsElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “New York 17th District general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/new-york-17th-district-general-2026?e=c2026&el=runoff, updated .

New York 17th District general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Cait Conley 61.5% · prediction market price

No. 37 of 527 House races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 New York 17th District general election, 15 outside groups spent $6.3M: $567K supporting Cait Conley (D), $3.3M opposing Cait Conley, $779K supporting Mike Lawler (R) and $1.6M opposing Mike Lawler.

$6.3M

outside money

supporting Cait Conley (D)
$567K
opposing Cait Conley (D)
$3.3M
supporting Mike Lawler (R)
$779K
opposing Mike Lawler (R)
$1.6M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Cait Conley

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Mike Lawler

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Cait Conley Democrat

    $3.3M
    $567K

    $567K supporting Cait Conley · $3.3M opposing Cait Conley

  • Mike Lawler Republican

    $1.6M
    $779K

    $779K supporting Mike Lawler · $1.6M opposing Mike Lawler

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them, and what party committees spent working with the campaign.

  • Cait Conley

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $4.3M
    Outside money supporting
    $567K
    Outside money opposing
    $3.3M

    Party spending with the campaign

    $451K

    DCCC $295KNew York State Democratic Committee $156K

    Cait for New York

  • Mike Lawler

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $8.2M
    Outside money supporting
    $779K
    Outside money opposing
    $1.6M

    Party spending with the campaign

    $92,619

    NRCC $92,619

    Lawler for Congress
  • Campaign money to 30 Jun 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 5 Oct 2026

Supporting $157KOpposing $22,949

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. Battleground New Yorksupporting Cait Conley$548K
  2. America First Agriculture Actionsupporting Mike Lawler$289K
  3. Center Forward Initiativesupporting Mike Lawler$200K
  4. American Association of Nurse Anesthetistssupporting Mike Lawler$134K
  5. America PACsupporting Mike Lawler$101K
  6. No Going Back PACsupporting Mike Lawler$54,996
  7. Rural Freedom Networksupporting Cait Conley$16,265
  8. New Yorkers for a Return to Fair and Honest Governmentsupporting Cait Conley$2,750

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Congressional Leadership Fundopposing Cait Conley$3.1M
  2. LCV Victory Fundopposing Mike Lawler$533K
  3. HMPopposing Mike Lawler$526K
  4. Edf Action Votesopposing Mike Lawler$322K
  5. Planned Parenthood Votesopposing Mike Lawler$254K
  6. America PACopposing Cait Conley$79,123
  7. No Going Back PACopposing Cait Conley$57,410
  8. The Governing Majority Fundopposing Cait Conley$32,952

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesCongressional Leadership Fund spent $3.1M opposing Cait Conley · $3.1MBattleground New York spent $548K supporting Cait Conley · $548KLCV Victory Fund spent $533K opposing Mike Lawler · $533KHMP spent $526K opposing Mike Lawler · $526KEdf Action Votes spent $322K opposing Mike Lawler · $322KAmerica First Agriculture Action spent $289K supporting Mike Lawler · $289KPlanned Parenthood Votes spent $254K opposing Mike Lawler · $254KCenter Forward Initiative spent $200K supporting Mike Lawler · $200KBattleground New York spent $723 opposing Mike Lawler · $723American Action Network gave $43.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund · $43.5MChevron Corporation gave $3.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund · $3.5M1199 SEIU New York State Political Action Fund gave $250K to Battleground New York · $250KToolbox gave $10,000 to Battleground New York · $10,000League of Conservation Voters gave $18.0M to LCV Victory Fund · $18.0MGreen Advocacy Project (CA) gave $300K to LCV Victory Fund · $300KHouse Majority Forward gave $61.7M to HMP · $61.7MAmerican Opportunity Action gave $4.0M to HMP · $4.0MEnvironmental Defense Action Fund gave $10.7M to Edf Action Votes · $10.7MTrulieve Inc gave $2.5M to America First Agriculture Action · $2.5MCuraleaf Inc. gave $2.5M to America First Agriculture Action · $2.5MPlanned Parenthood Action Fund gave $500K to Planned Parenthood Votes · $500KPennsylvanians for Judicial Fairness gave $251K to Planned Parenthood Votes · $251KCenter Forward gave $925K to Center Forward Initiative · $925KUnitedhealth Group (MN) gave $15,735 to Center Forward Initiative · $15,735American Action NetworkAmerican Action NetworkCompany or group · $43.5MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.5M1199 SEIU New York StatePolitical Action Fund1199 SEIU New York State Political Action FundCompany or group · $250KToolboxToolboxCompany or group · $10,000League of ConservationVotersLeague of Conservation VotersCompany or group · $18.0MGreen Advocacy Project (CA)Green Advocacy Project (CA)Company or group · $300KHouse Majority ForwardHouse Majority ForwardCompany or group · $61.7MAmerican Opportunity ActionAmerican Opportunity ActionCompany or group · $4.0MEnvironmental Defense ActionFundEnvironmental Defense Action FundCompany or group · $10.7MTrulieve IncTrulieve IncCompany or group · $2.5MCuraleaf Inc.Curaleaf Inc.Company or group · $2.5MPlanned Parenthood ActionFundPlanned Parenthood Action FundCompany or group · $500KPennsylvanians for JudicialFairnessPennsylvanians for Judicial FairnessCompany or group · $251KCenter ForwardCenter ForwardCompany or group · $925KUnitedhealth Group (MN)Unitedhealth Group (MN)Company or group · $15,735Congressional LeadershipFundCongressional Leadership FundGroup · $3.1MBattleground New YorkBattleground New YorkGroup · $548KLCV Victory FundLCV Victory FundGroup · $533KHMPHMPGroup · $526KEdf Action VotesEdf Action VotesGroup · $322KAmerica First AgricultureActionAmerica First Agriculture ActionGroup · $289KPlanned Parenthood VotesPlanned Parenthood VotesGroup · $254KCenter Forward InitiativeCenter Forward InitiativeGroup · $200KCait ConleyCait ConleyCandidate · $3.8MMike LawlerMike LawlerCandidate · $2.4M
  • Congressional Leadership Fund spent opposing Cait Conley · $3.1M
  • Battleground New York spent supporting Cait Conley · $548K
  • LCV Victory Fund spent opposing Mike Lawler · $533K
  • HMP spent opposing Mike Lawler · $526K
  • Edf Action Votes spent opposing Mike Lawler · $322K
  • America First Agriculture Action spent supporting Mike Lawler · $289K
  • Planned Parenthood Votes spent opposing Mike Lawler · $254K
  • Center Forward Initiative spent supporting Mike Lawler · $200K
  • Battleground New York spent opposing Mike Lawler · $723
  • American Action Network gave to Congressional Leadership Fund · $43.5M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Congressional Leadership Fund · $3.5M
  • 1199 SEIU New York State Political Action Fund gave to Battleground New York · $250K
  • Toolbox gave to Battleground New York · $10,000
  • League of Conservation Voters gave to LCV Victory Fund · $18.0M
  • Green Advocacy Project (CA) gave to LCV Victory Fund · $300K
  • House Majority Forward gave to HMP · $61.7M
  • American Opportunity Action gave to HMP · $4.0M
  • Environmental Defense Action Fund gave to Edf Action Votes · $10.7M
  • Trulieve Inc gave to America First Agriculture Action · $2.5M
  • Curaleaf Inc. gave to America First Agriculture Action · $2.5M
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund gave to Planned Parenthood Votes · $500K
  • Pennsylvanians for Judicial Fairness gave to Planned Parenthood Votes · $251K
  • Center Forward gave to Center Forward Initiative · $925K
  • Unitedhealth Group (MN) gave to Center Forward Initiative · $15,735
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Congressional Leadership Fund

  • Congressional Leadership Fund spent $3.1M opposing Cait Conley$3.1M
  • American Action Network gave $43.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund$43.5M
  • Chevron Corporation gave $3.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund$3.5M

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 3 polls to 29 Sep 2026 has Cait Conley at 48.0% and Mike Lawler at 47.0%.

3polls in the average

polls of this race
3
pollsters
3

Cait ConleyMike Lawler

Emerson College27 Sep to 29 Sep 2026 · 400 likely voters
DemocraticCait Conley48.0%
RepublicanMike Lawler46.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 29 Sep ’26Emerson College 27 Sep to 29 Sep 2026 · 400 likely votersCait Conley 48.0%Mike Lawler 46.0%
  2. 22 Jul ’26co/efficient 20 Jul to 22 Jul 2026 · 1,292 likely votersCait Conley 45.0%Mike Lawler 50.0%
  3. 1 Jul ’26FM3 Research a party-aligned sponsor paid for it27 Jun to 1 Jul 2026 · 509 likely votersCait Conley 51.0%Mike Lawler 45.0%
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