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Race2026 cycle · PrimariesElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Texas Senate general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/texas-senate-general-2026?e=c2026&el=primary, updated .

Texas Senate general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

James Talarico 65.5% · prediction market price

No. 1 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 Texas Senate general election, 51 outside groups spent $221.3M: $5.1M supporting James Talarico (D), $114.3M opposing James Talarico, $83.8M supporting Ken Paxton (R) and $18.1M opposing Ken Paxton.

$221.3M

outside money

supporting James Talarico (D)
$5.1M
opposing James Talarico (D)
$114.3M
supporting Ken Paxton (R)
$83.8M
opposing Ken Paxton (R)
$18.1M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • James Talarico

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Ken Paxton

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • James Talarico Democrat

    $114.3M
    $5.1M

    $5.1M supporting James Talarico · $114.3M opposing James Talarico

  • Ken Paxton Republican

    $18.1M
    $83.8M

    $83.8M supporting Ken Paxton · $18.1M opposing Ken Paxton

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them, and what party committees spent working with the campaign.

  • James Talarico

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $68.6M
    Outside money supporting
    $5.1M
    Outside money opposing
    $114.3M

    Party spending with the campaign

    $3,565

    DSCC $3,565

    Talarico for Texas

  • Ken Paxton

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $9.2M
    Outside money supporting
    $83.8M
    Outside money opposing
    $18.1M
    Ken Paxton for Senate
  • Campaign money to 30 Jun 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 5 Oct 2026

Supporting $10,972Opposing $150K

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. Texas PACsupporting Ken Paxton$68.8M
  2. MAGA Inc.supporting Ken Paxton$7.5M
  3. Lone Star Liberty PACsupporting Ken Paxton$3.6M
  4. No Going Back PACsupporting Ken Paxton$2.8M
  5. Lower Costs Nowsupporting James Talarico$1.2M
  6. Lone Star Rising PACsupporting James Talarico$1.2M
  7. Evangelicals for a Better Futuresupporting James Talarico$1.0M
  8. America PACsupporting Ken Paxton$542K

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Texas PACopposing James Talarico$64.8M
  2. MAGA Inc.opposing James Talarico$17.5M
  3. Lone Star Liberty PACopposing James Talarico$14.1M
  4. Lone Star Rising PACopposing Ken Paxton$12.6M
  5. America PACopposing James Talarico$6.0M
  6. Defend US PACopposing James Talarico$5.6M
  7. No Going Back PACopposing James Talarico$2.8M
  8. Texas Foreveropposing Ken Paxton$2.1M

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesTexas PAC spent $68.8M supporting Ken Paxton · $68.8MTexas PAC spent $64.8M opposing James Talarico · $64.8MMAGA Inc. spent $17.5M opposing James Talarico · $17.5MLone Star Liberty PAC spent $14.1M opposing James Talarico · $14.1MLone Star Rising PAC spent $12.6M opposing Ken Paxton · $12.6MMAGA Inc. spent $7.5M supporting Ken Paxton · $7.5MAmerica PAC spent $6.0M opposing James Talarico · $6.0MDefend US PAC spent $5.6M opposing James Talarico · $5.6MLone Star Liberty PAC spent $3.6M supporting Ken Paxton · $3.6MNo Going Back PAC spent $2.8M supporting Ken Paxton · $2.8MNo Going Back PAC spent $2.8M opposing James Talarico · $2.8MLower Costs Now spent $1.3M opposing Ken Paxton · $1.3MLower Costs Now spent $1.2M supporting James Talarico · $1.2MLone Star Rising PAC spent $1.2M supporting James Talarico · $1.2MAmerica PAC spent $542K supporting Ken Paxton · $542KForis Dax gave $35.0M to MAGA Inc. · $35.0MSecuring American Greatness (FL) gave $13.8M to MAGA Inc. · $13.8MThomas J Henry Law gave $646K to Lone Star Liberty PAC · $646KSSC Inc gave $210K to Lone Star Liberty PAC · $210KAmerica Votes gave $900K to Lone Star Rising PAC · $900KSufam Advisors gave $100K to Lone Star Rising PAC · $100KAmerican Exceptionalism Institute gave $825K to Defend US PAC · $825KConservative Agenda for America (VA) gave $250K to Defend US PAC · $250KForis DaxForis DaxCompany or group · $35.0MSecuring American Greatness(FL)Securing American Greatness (FL)Company or group · $13.8MThomas J Henry LawThomas J Henry LawCompany or group · $646KSSC IncSSC IncCompany or group · $210KAmerica VotesAmerica VotesCompany or group · $900KSufam AdvisorsSufam AdvisorsCompany or group · $100KAmerican ExceptionalismInstituteAmerican Exceptionalism InstituteCompany or group · $825KConservative Agenda forAmerica (VA)Conservative Agenda for America (VA)Company or group · $250KTexas PACTexas PACGroup · $133.6MMAGA Inc.MAGA Inc.Group · $25.0MLone Star Liberty PACLone Star Liberty PACGroup · $17.7MLone Star Rising PACLone Star Rising PACGroup · $13.9MAmerica PACAmerica PACGroup · $6.5MDefend US PACDefend US PACGroup · $5.6MNo Going Back PACNo Going Back PACGroup · $5.6MLower Costs NowLower Costs NowGroup · $2.5MJames TalaricoJames TalaricoCandidate · $119.4MKen PaxtonKen PaxtonCandidate · $101.9M
  • Texas PAC spent supporting Ken Paxton · $68.8M
  • Texas PAC spent opposing James Talarico · $64.8M
  • MAGA Inc. spent opposing James Talarico · $17.5M
  • Lone Star Liberty PAC spent opposing James Talarico · $14.1M
  • Lone Star Rising PAC spent opposing Ken Paxton · $12.6M
  • MAGA Inc. spent supporting Ken Paxton · $7.5M
  • America PAC spent opposing James Talarico · $6.0M
  • Defend US PAC spent opposing James Talarico · $5.6M
  • Lone Star Liberty PAC spent supporting Ken Paxton · $3.6M
  • No Going Back PAC spent supporting Ken Paxton · $2.8M
  • No Going Back PAC spent opposing James Talarico · $2.8M
  • Lower Costs Now spent opposing Ken Paxton · $1.3M
  • Lower Costs Now spent supporting James Talarico · $1.2M
  • Lone Star Rising PAC spent supporting James Talarico · $1.2M
  • America PAC spent supporting Ken Paxton · $542K
  • Foris Dax gave to MAGA Inc. · $35.0M
  • Securing American Greatness (FL) gave to MAGA Inc. · $13.8M
  • Thomas J Henry Law gave to Lone Star Liberty PAC · $646K
  • SSC Inc gave to Lone Star Liberty PAC · $210K
  • America Votes gave to Lone Star Rising PAC · $900K
  • Sufam Advisors gave to Lone Star Rising PAC · $100K
  • American Exceptionalism Institute gave to Defend US PAC · $825K
  • Conservative Agenda for America (VA) gave to Defend US PAC · $250K
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Texas PAC

  • Texas PAC spent $68.8M supporting Ken Paxton$68.8M
  • Texas PAC spent $64.8M opposing James Talarico$64.8M

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 8 polls to 28 Sep 2026 has James Talarico at 48.3% and Ken Paxton at 45.2%.

8polls in the average

polls of this race
43
pollsters
23

James TalaricoKen Paxton

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research24 Sep to 28 Sep 2026 · 881 likely voters
DemocraticJames Talarico51.0%
RepublicanKen Paxton49.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 28 Sep ’26Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 24 Sep to 28 Sep 2026 · 881 likely votersJames Talarico 51.0%Ken Paxton 49.0%
  2. 22 Sep ’26Slingshot Strategies 19 Sep to 22 Sep 2026 · 1,007 likely votersJames Talarico 49.0%Ken Paxton 45.0%Ted Brown 3.0%
  3. 19 Sep ’26Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center 15 Sep to 19 Sep 2026 · 1,800 likely votersJames Talarico 47.0%Ken Paxton 46.0%Ted Brown 3.0%
  4. 14 Sep ’26Emerson College 12 Sep to 14 Sep 2026 · 1,000 likely votersJames Talarico 47.0%Ken Paxton 46.0%Ted Brown 2.0%
  5. 11 Sep ’26ReconMR/Siena University 8 Sep to 11 Sep 2026 · 614 likely votersJames Talarico 49.0%Ken Paxton 43.0%
  6. 9 Sep ’26InsiderAdvantage 8 Sep to 9 Sep 2026 · 1,200 likely votersJames Talarico 47.1%Ken Paxton 45.6%Ted Brown 2.2%
  7. 4 Sep ’26YouGov 27 Aug to 4 Sep 2026 · 1,000 registered votersJames Talarico 48.0%Ken Paxton 43.0%
  8. 1 Sep ’26Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research 30 Aug to 1 Sep 2026 · 895 likely votersJames Talarico 48.0%Ken Paxton 44.0%
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