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2026 cycle

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Race2026 cycleElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Alaska Senate general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/alaska-senate-general-2026?e=c2026, updated .

Alaska Senate general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Mary Peltola 76.5% · prediction market price

No. 10 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

The short version

In the 2026 Alaska Senate general election, 25 outside groups spent $40.3M: $3.3M supporting Mary Peltola (D), $17.0M opposing Mary Peltola, $6.0M supporting Dan Sullivan (R) and $13.9M opposing Dan Sullivan.

$40.3M

outside money

supporting Mary Peltola (D)
$3.3M
opposing Mary Peltola (D)
$17.0M
supporting Dan Sullivan (R)
$6.0M
opposing Dan Sullivan (R)
$13.9M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Mary Peltola

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Dan Sullivan

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Mary Peltola Democrat

    $17.0M
    $3.3M

    $3.3M supporting Mary Peltola · $17.0M opposing Mary Peltola

  • Dan Sullivan Republican

    $13.9M
    $6.0M

    $6.0M supporting Dan Sullivan · $13.9M opposing Dan Sullivan

This seat, every election

Alaska Senate

$52.5M

outside money in the 2026 cycle

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them, and what party committees spent working with the campaign.

  • Mary Peltola

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $18.5M
    Outside money supporting
    $3.3M
    Outside money opposing
    $17.0M

    Party spending with the campaign

    $1.9M

    Alaska Democratic Party $1.9MDSCC $523

    Alaskans for Mary

  • Dan Sullivan

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $9.1M
    Outside money supporting
    $6.0M
    Outside money opposing
    $13.9M

    Party spending with the campaign

    $1.9M

    NRSC $1.9M

    Alaskans for Dan Sullivan
  • Campaign money to 29 Jul 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 5 Oct 2026

Supporting $21,482Opposing $20,385

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. No Going Back PACsupporting Dan Sullivan$2.6M
  2. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.supporting Dan Sullivan$2.3M
  3. Forward Alaskasupporting Mary Peltola$1.3M
  4. Midnight Sun PACsupporting Mary Peltola$1.3M
  5. Club for Growth Actionsupporting Dan Sullivan$689K
  6. One for All Committeesupporting Mary Peltola$470K
  7. High Plains PACsupporting Dan Sullivan$265K
  8. America PACsupporting Dan Sullivan$187K

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Senate Leadership Fundopposing Mary Peltola$8.2M
  2. North Staropposing Dan Sullivan$6.3M
  3. Last Frontier PACopposing Mary Peltola$3.4M
  4. Women Voteopposing Dan Sullivan$2.8M
  5. No Going Back PACopposing Mary Peltola$2.7M
  6. WinSenateopposing Dan Sullivan$2.5M
  7. Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.opposing Mary Peltola$2.2M
  8. Protecting Alaska Fishermenopposing Dan Sullivan$1.3M

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesSenate Leadership Fund spent $8.2M opposing Mary Peltola · $8.2MNorth Star spent $6.3M opposing Dan Sullivan · $6.3MLast Frontier PAC spent $3.4M opposing Mary Peltola · $3.4MWomen Vote spent $2.8M opposing Dan Sullivan · $2.8MNo Going Back PAC spent $2.7M opposing Mary Peltola · $2.7MNo Going Back PAC spent $2.6M supporting Dan Sullivan · $2.6MWinSenate spent $2.5M opposing Dan Sullivan · $2.5MAmericans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent $2.3M supporting Dan Sullivan · $2.3MAmericans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent $2.2M opposing Mary Peltola · $2.2MForward Alaska spent $1.3M supporting Mary Peltola · $1.3MNorth Star spent $52,995 supporting Mary Peltola · $52,995One Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7MChevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9MKoch Inc gave $30.0M to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $30.0MStand Together gave $20.0M to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $20.0MConocophillips Ans Marketing gave $500K to Last Frontier PAC · $500KChevron Corporation gave $200K to Last Frontier PAC · $200KPivotal Ventures gave $1.0M to Women Vote · $1.0MEmilys List Action gave $800K to Women Vote · $800KSMP gave $21.1M to WinSenate · $21.1MOne NationOne NationCompany or group · $70.7MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.9MKoch IncKoch IncCompany or group · $30.0MStand TogetherStand TogetherCompany or group · $20.0MConocophillips Ans MarketingConocophillips Ans MarketingCompany or group · $500KPivotal VenturesPivotal VenturesCompany or group · $1.0MEmilys List ActionEmilys List ActionCompany or group · $800KSMPSMPCompany or group · $21.1MSenate Leadership FundSenate Leadership FundGroup · $8.2MNorth StarNorth StarGroup · $6.4MNo Going Back PACNo Going Back PACGroup · $5.3MAmericans for ProsperityAction, Inc.Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc.Group · $4.4MLast Frontier PACLast Frontier PACGroup · $3.4MWomen VoteWomen VoteGroup · $2.8MWinSenateWinSenateGroup · $2.5MForward AlaskaForward AlaskaGroup · $1.3MMary PeltolaMary PeltolaCandidate · $20.3MDan SullivanDan SullivanCandidate · $20.0M
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent opposing Mary Peltola · $8.2M
  • North Star spent opposing Dan Sullivan · $6.3M
  • Last Frontier PAC spent opposing Mary Peltola · $3.4M
  • Women Vote spent opposing Dan Sullivan · $2.8M
  • No Going Back PAC spent opposing Mary Peltola · $2.7M
  • No Going Back PAC spent supporting Dan Sullivan · $2.6M
  • WinSenate spent opposing Dan Sullivan · $2.5M
  • Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent supporting Dan Sullivan · $2.3M
  • Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. spent opposing Mary Peltola · $2.2M
  • Forward Alaska spent supporting Mary Peltola · $1.3M
  • North Star spent supporting Mary Peltola · $52,995
  • One Nation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9M
  • Koch Inc gave to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $30.0M
  • Stand Together gave to Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. · $20.0M
  • Conocophillips Ans Marketing gave to Last Frontier PAC · $500K
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Last Frontier PAC · $200K
  • Pivotal Ventures gave to Women Vote · $1.0M
  • Emilys List Action gave to Women Vote · $800K
  • SMP gave to WinSenate · $21.1M
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Senate Leadership Fund

  • Senate Leadership Fund spent $8.2M opposing Mary Peltola$8.2M
  • One Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund$70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund$3.9M

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 4 polls to 30 Sep 2026 has Mary Peltola at 49.2% and Dan Sullivan at 48.3%.

4polls in the average

polls of this race
16
pollsters
7

Mary PeltolaDan Sullivan

Quantus Insights28 Sep to 30 Sep 2026 · 758 likely voters
DemocraticMary Peltola47.2%
RepublicanDan Sullivan47.8%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 30 Sep ’26Quantus Insights 28 Sep to 30 Sep 2026 · 758 likely votersMary Peltola 47.2%Dan Sullivan 47.8%
  2. 17 Sep ’26co/efficient 14 Sep to 17 Sep 2026 · 799 likely votersMary Peltola 46.0%Dan Sullivan 49.0%
  3. 11 Sep ’26Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research 8 Sep to 11 Sep 2026 · 800 likely votersMary Peltola 53.0%Dan Sullivan 47.0%
  4. 23 Aug ’26Alaska Survey Research 20 Aug to 23 Aug 2026 · 1,495 likely votersMary Peltola 50.6%Dan Sullivan 49.4%
  5. 5 Aug ’26Alaska Survey Research 2 Aug to 5 Aug 2026 · 1,371 likely votersMary Peltola 50.8%Dan Sullivan 49.2%
  6. 29 Jun ’26The New York Times/Siena University 15 Jun to 29 Jun 2026 · 593 likely votersMary Peltola 45.0%Dan Sullivan 47.0%
  7. 7 Jun ’26Alaska Survey Research 4 Jun to 7 Jun 2026 · 1,393 likely votersMary Peltola 49.4%Dan Sullivan 44.2%Gerald Heikes 3.7%Dustin Darden 2.7%
  8. 17 May ’26Alaska Survey Research 14 May to 17 May 2026 · 1,401 likely votersMary Peltola 48.4%Dan Sullivan 43.8%Dustin Darden 5.1%Gerald Heikes 2.7%
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