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2026 cycle

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Race2026 cycleElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Florida Senate special general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/florida-senate-special-general-2026?e=c2026, updated .

Florida Senate special general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Ashley Moody 90.3% · prediction market price

No. 27 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

The short version

In the 2026 Florida Senate special general election, 6 outside groups spent $7.5M: $170K supporting Angie Nixon (D), $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon, $958K supporting Ashley Moody (R) and $18,905 opposing Ashley Moody.

$7.5M

outside money

supporting Angie Nixon (D)
$170K
opposing Angie Nixon (D)
$6.3M
supporting Ashley Moody (R)
$958K
opposing Ashley Moody (R)
$18,905

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Angie Nixon

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Ashley Moody

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Angie Nixon Democrat

    $6.3M
    $170K

    $170K supporting Angie Nixon · $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon

  • Ashley Moody Republican

    $18,905
    $958K

    $958K supporting Ashley Moody · $18,905 opposing Ashley Moody

This seat, every election

Florida Senate

$8.2M

outside money in the 2026 cycle

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them.

  • Angie Nixon

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $975K
    Outside money supporting
    $170K
    Outside money opposing
    $6.3M
    Angie for Florida

  • Ashley Moody

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $11.3M
    Outside money supporting
    $958K
    Outside money opposing
    $18,905
    Moody for Florida
  • Campaign money to 29 Jul 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 28 Sep 2026

Supporting $1.0MOpposing $1.5M

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. Stronger Safer Nationsupporting Ashley Moody$879K
  2. Planned Parenthood Votessupporting Angie Nixon$170K
  3. Senate Leadership Fundsupporting Ashley Moody$30,000
  4. Senate Conservatives Fundsupporting Ashley Moody$26,117
  5. Senate Conservatives Actionsupporting Ashley Moody$23,673
  6. The People United PACsupporting Angie Nixon$75

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Stronger Safer Nationopposing Angie Nixon$6.3M
  2. Planned Parenthood Votesopposing Ashley Moody$18,905

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesStronger Safer Nation spent $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon · $6.3MStronger Safer Nation spent $879K supporting Ashley Moody · $879KPlanned Parenthood Votes spent $170K supporting Angie Nixon · $170KSenate Leadership Fund spent $30,000 supporting Ashley Moody · $30,000Senate Conservatives Fund spent $26,117 supporting Ashley Moody · $26,117Senate Conservatives Action spent $23,673 supporting Ashley Moody · $23,673Planned Parenthood Votes spent $18,905 opposing Ashley Moody · $18,905The People United PAC spent $75 supporting Angie Nixon · $75Rai Services (NC) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation · $200KRai Services (FL) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation · $200KPlanned Parenthood Action Fund gave $500K to Planned Parenthood Votes · $500KPennsylvanians for Judicial Fairness gave $251K to Planned Parenthood Votes · $251KOne Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7MChevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9MBlessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action Committee gave $5,000 to Senate Conservatives Fund · $5,000Raymond James (GA) gave $336 to Senate Conservatives Action · $336Strategy & Hustle gave $62,633 to The People United PAC · $62,633Rai Services (NC)Rai Services (NC)Company or group · $200KRai Services (FL)Rai Services (FL)Company or group · $200KPlanned Parenthood ActionFundPlanned Parenthood Action FundCompany or group · $500KPennsylvanians for JudicialFairnessPennsylvanians for Judicial FairnessCompany or group · $251KOne NationOne NationCompany or group · $70.7MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.9MBlessey Marine Service, Inc.Political Action CommitteeBlessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action CommitteeCompany or group · $5,000Raymond James (GA)Raymond James (GA)Company or group · $336Strategy & HustleStrategy & HustleCompany or group · $62,633Stronger Safer NationStronger Safer NationGroup · $7.2MPlanned Parenthood VotesPlanned Parenthood VotesGroup · $189KSenate Leadership FundSenate Leadership FundGroup · $30,000Senate Conservatives FundSenate Conservatives FundGroup · $26,117Senate Conservatives ActionSenate Conservatives ActionGroup · $23,673The People United PACThe People United PACGroup · $75Angie NixonAngie NixonCandidate · $6.5MAshley MoodyAshley MoodyCandidate · $977K
  • Stronger Safer Nation spent opposing Angie Nixon · $6.3M
  • Stronger Safer Nation spent supporting Ashley Moody · $879K
  • Planned Parenthood Votes spent supporting Angie Nixon · $170K
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent supporting Ashley Moody · $30,000
  • Senate Conservatives Fund spent supporting Ashley Moody · $26,117
  • Senate Conservatives Action spent supporting Ashley Moody · $23,673
  • Planned Parenthood Votes spent opposing Ashley Moody · $18,905
  • The People United PAC spent supporting Angie Nixon · $75
  • Rai Services (NC) gave to Stronger Safer Nation · $200K
  • Rai Services (FL) gave to Stronger Safer Nation · $200K
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund gave to Planned Parenthood Votes · $500K
  • Pennsylvanians for Judicial Fairness gave to Planned Parenthood Votes · $251K
  • One Nation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9M
  • Blessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action Committee gave to Senate Conservatives Fund · $5,000
  • Raymond James (GA) gave to Senate Conservatives Action · $336
  • Strategy & Hustle gave to The People United PAC · $62,633
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Stronger Safer Nation

  • Stronger Safer Nation spent $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon$6.3M
  • Stronger Safer Nation spent $879K supporting Ashley Moody$879K
  • Rai Services (NC) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation$200K
  • Rai Services (FL) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation$200K

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 5 polls to 27 Sep 2026 has Ashley Moody at 48.7% and Angie Nixon at 43.3%.

5polls in the average

polls of this race
22
pollsters
12

Angie NixonAshley Moody

Change Research25 Sep to 27 Sep 2026 · 1,063 likely voters
DemocraticAngie Nixon47.0%
RepublicanAshley Moody48.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 27 Sep ’26Change Research 25 Sep to 27 Sep 2026 · 1,063 likely votersAngie Nixon 47.0%Ashley Moody 48.0%
  2. 21 Sep ’26InsiderAdvantage 20 Sep to 21 Sep 2026 · 600 likely votersAngie Nixon 41.8%Ashley Moody 49.3%Neil Gillespie 2.4%
  3. 21 Sep ’26Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research 14 Sep to 21 Sep 2026 · 830 likely votersAngie Nixon 40.0%Ashley Moody 51.0%
  4. 17 Sep ’26St. Pete Polls 15 Sep to 17 Sep 2026 · 913 likely votersAngie Nixon 44.8%Ashley Moody 45.2%
  5. 10 Sep ’26Quantus Insights 8 Sep to 10 Sep 2026 · 733 likely votersAngie Nixon 42.7%Ashley Moody 50.1%
  6. 9 Sep ’26Change Research 7 Sep to 9 Sep 2026 · 1,107 likely votersAngie Nixon 47.0%Ashley Moody 47.0%
  7. 17 Jul ’26University of North Florida 8 Jul to 17 Jul 2026 · 848 likely votersAshley Moody 50.0%Alexander Vindman 40.0%
  8. 17 Jul ’26University of North Florida 8 Jul to 17 Jul 2026 · 848 likely votersAngie Nixon 42.0%Ashley Moody 50.0%
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