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Race2026 cycle · Special electionsElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Florida Senate special general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/florida-senate-special-general-2026?e=c2026&el=special, updated .

Florida Senate special general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Ashley Moody 90.3% · prediction market price

No. 27 of 68 Senate races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 Florida Senate special general election, 6 outside groups spent $7.5M: $170K supporting Angie Nixon (D), $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon, $958K supporting Ashley Moody (R) and $18,905 opposing Ashley Moody.

$7.5M

outside money

supporting Angie Nixon (D)
$170K
opposing Angie Nixon (D)
$6.3M
supporting Ashley Moody (R)
$958K
opposing Ashley Moody (R)
$18,905

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Angie Nixon

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Ashley Moody

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Angie Nixon Democrat

    $6.3M
    $170K

    $170K supporting Angie Nixon · $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon

  • Ashley Moody Republican

    $18,905
    $958K

    $958K supporting Ashley Moody · $18,905 opposing Ashley Moody

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them.

  • Angie Nixon

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $975K
    Outside money supporting
    $170K
    Outside money opposing
    $6.3M
    Angie for Florida

  • Ashley Moody

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $11.3M
    Outside money supporting
    $958K
    Outside money opposing
    $18,905
    Moody for Florida
  • Campaign money to 29 Jul 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 28 Sep 2026

Supporting $1.0MOpposing $1.5M

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. Stronger Safer Nationsupporting Ashley Moody$879K
  2. Planned Parenthood Votessupporting Angie Nixon$170K
  3. Senate Leadership Fundsupporting Ashley Moody$30,000
  4. Senate Conservatives Fundsupporting Ashley Moody$26,117
  5. Senate Conservatives Actionsupporting Ashley Moody$23,673
  6. The People United PACsupporting Angie Nixon$75

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Stronger Safer Nationopposing Angie Nixon$6.3M
  2. Planned Parenthood Votesopposing Ashley Moody$18,905

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesStronger Safer Nation spent $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon · $6.3MStronger Safer Nation spent $879K supporting Ashley Moody · $879KPlanned Parenthood Votes spent $170K supporting Angie Nixon · $170KSenate Leadership Fund spent $30,000 supporting Ashley Moody · $30,000Senate Conservatives Fund spent $26,117 supporting Ashley Moody · $26,117Senate Conservatives Action spent $23,673 supporting Ashley Moody · $23,673Planned Parenthood Votes spent $18,905 opposing Ashley Moody · $18,905The People United PAC spent $75 supporting Angie Nixon · $75Rai Services (NC) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation · $200KRai Services (FL) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation · $200KPlanned Parenthood Action Fund gave $500K to Planned Parenthood Votes · $500KPennsylvanians for Judicial Fairness gave $251K to Planned Parenthood Votes · $251KOne Nation gave $70.7M to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7MChevron Corporation gave $3.9M to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9MBlessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action Committee gave $5,000 to Senate Conservatives Fund · $5,000Raymond James (GA) gave $336 to Senate Conservatives Action · $336Strategy & Hustle gave $62,633 to The People United PAC · $62,633Rai Services (NC)Rai Services (NC)Company or group · $200KRai Services (FL)Rai Services (FL)Company or group · $200KPlanned Parenthood ActionFundPlanned Parenthood Action FundCompany or group · $500KPennsylvanians for JudicialFairnessPennsylvanians for Judicial FairnessCompany or group · $251KOne NationOne NationCompany or group · $70.7MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.9MBlessey Marine Service, Inc.Political Action CommitteeBlessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action CommitteeCompany or group · $5,000Raymond James (GA)Raymond James (GA)Company or group · $336Strategy & HustleStrategy & HustleCompany or group · $62,633Stronger Safer NationStronger Safer NationGroup · $7.2MPlanned Parenthood VotesPlanned Parenthood VotesGroup · $189KSenate Leadership FundSenate Leadership FundGroup · $30,000Senate Conservatives FundSenate Conservatives FundGroup · $26,117Senate Conservatives ActionSenate Conservatives ActionGroup · $23,673The People United PACThe People United PACGroup · $75Angie NixonAngie NixonCandidate · $6.5MAshley MoodyAshley MoodyCandidate · $977K
  • Stronger Safer Nation spent opposing Angie Nixon · $6.3M
  • Stronger Safer Nation spent supporting Ashley Moody · $879K
  • Planned Parenthood Votes spent supporting Angie Nixon · $170K
  • Senate Leadership Fund spent supporting Ashley Moody · $30,000
  • Senate Conservatives Fund spent supporting Ashley Moody · $26,117
  • Senate Conservatives Action spent supporting Ashley Moody · $23,673
  • Planned Parenthood Votes spent opposing Ashley Moody · $18,905
  • The People United PAC spent supporting Angie Nixon · $75
  • Rai Services (NC) gave to Stronger Safer Nation · $200K
  • Rai Services (FL) gave to Stronger Safer Nation · $200K
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund gave to Planned Parenthood Votes · $500K
  • Pennsylvanians for Judicial Fairness gave to Planned Parenthood Votes · $251K
  • One Nation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $70.7M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Senate Leadership Fund · $3.9M
  • Blessey Marine Service, Inc. Political Action Committee gave to Senate Conservatives Fund · $5,000
  • Raymond James (GA) gave to Senate Conservatives Action · $336
  • Strategy & Hustle gave to The People United PAC · $62,633
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Stronger Safer Nation

  • Stronger Safer Nation spent $6.3M opposing Angie Nixon$6.3M
  • Stronger Safer Nation spent $879K supporting Ashley Moody$879K
  • Rai Services (NC) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation$200K
  • Rai Services (FL) gave $200K to Stronger Safer Nation$200K

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

The average of 5 polls to 27 Sep 2026 has Ashley Moody at 48.7% and Angie Nixon at 43.3%.

5polls in the average

polls of this race
22
pollsters
12

Angie NixonAshley Moody

Change Research25 Sep to 27 Sep 2026 · 1,063 likely voters
DemocraticAngie Nixon47.0%
RepublicanAshley Moody48.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 27 Sep ’26Change Research 25 Sep to 27 Sep 2026 · 1,063 likely votersAngie Nixon 47.0%Ashley Moody 48.0%
  2. 21 Sep ’26InsiderAdvantage 20 Sep to 21 Sep 2026 · 600 likely votersAngie Nixon 41.8%Ashley Moody 49.3%Neil Gillespie 2.4%
  3. 21 Sep ’26Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research 14 Sep to 21 Sep 2026 · 830 likely votersAngie Nixon 40.0%Ashley Moody 51.0%
  4. 17 Sep ’26St. Pete Polls 15 Sep to 17 Sep 2026 · 913 likely votersAngie Nixon 44.8%Ashley Moody 45.2%
  5. 10 Sep ’26Quantus Insights 8 Sep to 10 Sep 2026 · 733 likely votersAngie Nixon 42.7%Ashley Moody 50.1%
  6. 9 Sep ’26Change Research 7 Sep to 9 Sep 2026 · 1,107 likely votersAngie Nixon 47.0%Ashley Moody 47.0%
  7. 17 Jul ’26University of North Florida 8 Jul to 17 Jul 2026 · 848 likely votersAshley Moody 50.0%Alexander Vindman 40.0%
  8. 17 Jul ’26University of North Florida 8 Jul to 17 Jul 2026 · 848 likely votersAngie Nixon 42.0%Ashley Moody 50.0%
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