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Race2026 cycle · OtherElection day 3 Nov 2026Updated

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DonorAlpha, “Maine 2nd District general 2026”, https://donoralpha.com/races/maine-2nd-district-general-2026?e=c2026&el=undetermined, updated .

Maine 2nd District general 2026

Prediction market7 Oct 2026

Paul LePage 63.5% · prediction market price

No. 48 of 527 House races in the 2026 cycle

This race is in the 2026 general election.

The short version

In the 2026 Maine 2nd District general election, 11 outside groups spent $5.4M: $662K supporting Matt Dunlap (D), $2.5M opposing Matt Dunlap, $130K supporting Paul LePage (R) and $2.1M opposing Paul LePage.

$5.4M

outside money

supporting Matt Dunlap (D)
$662K
opposing Matt Dunlap (D)
$2.5M
supporting Paul LePage (R)
$130K
opposing Paul LePage (R)
$2.1M

Result not in yet

Election day is 3 Nov 2026.

  • Matt Dunlap

    Democrat

    Waiting for the count

  • Paul LePage

    Republican

    Waiting for the count

Outside money supporting and opposing each candidate

Both sides on one scale
← OpposingSupporting →

  • Matt Dunlap Democrat

    $2.5M
    $662K

    $662K supporting Matt Dunlap · $2.5M opposing Matt Dunlap

  • Paul LePage Republican

    $2.1M
    $130K

    $130K supporting Paul LePage · $2.1M opposing Paul LePage

The long version

The candidates

What each candidate’s own campaign raised, beside what outside groups spent supporting and opposing them.

  • Matt Dunlap

    Democrat

    Own campaign raised
    $1.2M
    Outside money supporting
    $662K
    Outside money opposing
    $2.5M
    Dunlap for Congress

  • Paul LePage

    Republican

    Own campaign raised
    $2.4M
    Outside money supporting
    $130K
    Outside money opposing
    $2.1M
    Paul Lepage for Congress
  • Campaign money to 30 Jun 2026

Week by week

Outside money each week, supporting and opposing the candidates, all candidates combined.

Week of 5 Oct 2026

Supporting $24,288Opposing $84,992

Supporting candidatesOpposing candidates

The groups on each side

The biggest outside groups in this race, by what they spent supporting or opposing each candidate.

Spent supporting a candidate

  1. National Nurses United for Patient Protectionsupporting Matt Dunlap$385K
  2. CFFE PACsupporting Matt Dunlap$204K
  3. America PACsupporting Paul LePage$79,345
  4. No Going Back PACsupporting Paul LePage$34,411
  5. Community Change Voterssupporting Matt Dunlap$30,156
  6. Maine Peoplesupporting Matt Dunlap$28,125
  7. The Conservative Caucussupporting Paul LePage$16,558
  8. Progressive Turnout Projectsupporting Matt Dunlap$14,535

Spent opposing a candidate

  1. Congressional Leadership Fundopposing Matt Dunlap$2.3M
  2. HMPopposing Paul LePage$2.1M
  3. America PACopposing Matt Dunlap$173K
  4. No Going Back PACopposing Matt Dunlap$60,342
  5. The Conservative Caucusopposing John Baldacci$22,384
  6. Maine Peopleopposing Paul LePage$9,375

Who’s connected to whom

The groups that spent supporting or opposing the candidates.

Their biggest giversGroups that spentCandidatesCongressional Leadership Fund spent $2.3M opposing Matt Dunlap · $2.3MHMP spent $2.1M opposing Paul LePage · $2.1MNational Nurses United for Patient Protection spent $385K supporting Matt Dunlap · $385KCFFE PAC spent $204K supporting Matt Dunlap · $204KAmerica PAC spent $173K opposing Matt Dunlap · $173KAmerica PAC spent $79,345 supporting Paul LePage · $79,345No Going Back PAC spent $60,342 opposing Matt Dunlap · $60,342No Going Back PAC spent $34,411 supporting Paul LePage · $34,411Maine People spent $28,125 supporting Matt Dunlap · $28,125The Conservative Caucus spent $22,384 opposing John Baldacci · $22,384The Conservative Caucus spent $16,558 supporting Paul LePage · $16,558Maine People spent $9,375 opposing Paul LePage · $9,375American Action Network gave $43.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund · $43.5MChevron Corporation gave $3.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund · $3.5MHouse Majority Forward gave $61.7M to HMP · $61.7MAmerican Opportunity Action gave $4.0M to HMP · $4.0MNNU gave $2.5M to National Nurses United for Patient Protection · $2.5MPivotal Ventures gave $2.0M to CFFE PAC · $2.0MOpportunity Action Fund gave $750K to CFFE PAC · $750KAmerican Action NetworkAmerican Action NetworkCompany or group · $43.5MChevron CorporationChevron CorporationCompany or group · $3.5MHouse Majority ForwardHouse Majority ForwardCompany or group · $61.7MAmerican Opportunity ActionAmerican Opportunity ActionCompany or group · $4.0MNNUNNUCompany or group · $2.5MPivotal VenturesPivotal VenturesCompany or group · $2.0MOpportunity Action FundOpportunity Action FundCompany or group · $750KCongressional LeadershipFundCongressional Leadership FundGroup · $2.3MHMPHMPGroup · $2.1MNational Nurses United forPatient ProtectionNational Nurses United for Patient ProtectionGroup · $385KAmerica PACAmerica PACGroup · $252KCFFE PACCFFE PACGroup · $204KNo Going Back PACNo Going Back PACGroup · $94,753The Conservative CaucusThe Conservative CaucusGroup · $38,942Maine PeopleMaine PeopleGroup · $37,500Matt DunlapMatt DunlapCandidate · $3.1MPaul LePagePaul LePageCandidate · $2.3MJohn BaldacciJohn BaldacciCandidate · $22,384
  • Congressional Leadership Fund spent opposing Matt Dunlap · $2.3M
  • HMP spent opposing Paul LePage · $2.1M
  • National Nurses United for Patient Protection spent supporting Matt Dunlap · $385K
  • CFFE PAC spent supporting Matt Dunlap · $204K
  • America PAC spent opposing Matt Dunlap · $173K
  • America PAC spent supporting Paul LePage · $79,345
  • No Going Back PAC spent opposing Matt Dunlap · $60,342
  • No Going Back PAC spent supporting Paul LePage · $34,411
  • Maine People spent supporting Matt Dunlap · $28,125
  • The Conservative Caucus spent opposing John Baldacci · $22,384
  • The Conservative Caucus spent supporting Paul LePage · $16,558
  • Maine People spent opposing Paul LePage · $9,375
  • American Action Network gave to Congressional Leadership Fund · $43.5M
  • Chevron Corporation gave to Congressional Leadership Fund · $3.5M
  • House Majority Forward gave to HMP · $61.7M
  • American Opportunity Action gave to HMP · $4.0M
  • NNU gave to National Nurses United for Patient Protection · $2.5M
  • Pivotal Ventures gave to CFFE PAC · $2.0M
  • Opportunity Action Fund gave to CFFE PAC · $750K
GaveSpent supportingSpent opposingSwipe to see the whole map.

Group

Congressional Leadership Fund

  • Congressional Leadership Fund spent $2.3M opposing Matt Dunlap$2.3M
  • American Action Network gave $43.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund$43.5M
  • Chevron Corporation gave $3.5M to Congressional Leadership Fund$3.5M

Polls

Every poll of this race on one timeline.

Of this race’s 4 polls, the newest ended on 29 Apr 2026.

4polls of this race

in 2026
4
pollsters
2

Matt DunlapPaul LePage

co/efficienta party-aligned sponsor paid for it25 Apr to 29 Apr 2026 · 918 likely voters
DemocraticMatt Dunlap40.0%
RepublicanPaul LePage50.0%

Point at a dot, or tab in and use the arrow keys

Every poll, newest first

  1. 29 Apr ’26co/efficient a party-aligned sponsor paid for it25 Apr to 29 Apr 2026 · 918 likely votersMatt Dunlap 40.0%Paul LePage 50.0%
  2. 16 Feb ’26University of New Hampshire 12 Feb to 16 Feb 2026 · 522 likely votersMatt Dunlap 46.0%Paul LePage 47.0%
  3. 16 Feb ’26University of New Hampshire 12 Feb to 16 Feb 2026 · 521 likely votersMatt Dunlap 46.0%Paul LePage 47.0%
  4. 16 Feb ’26University of New Hampshire 12 Feb to 16 Feb 2026 · 521 likely votersPaul LePage 48.0%Jordan Wood 44.0%
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